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Featherweight3 Rounds
UFC 325: Volkanovski vs Lopes 2
February 1, 2026
Sydney, New South Wales, Australia
Win Probability
40%Nakamura
Szalay60%
Predicted Winner
Sebastian Szalay
Confidence: 58%Method: Decision
Why Sebastian Szalay is Favored
Sebastian Szalay is on a 5-fight win streak and fights at home in Australia. His well-rounded game should give him the edge over Nakamura's karate-based style. Nakamura's counter-striking is dangerous but Szalay's pressure and volume should win the rounds.
Style Matchup Breakdown
Szalay's pressure vs Nakamura's counter-striking. Szalay's grappling threat should open up his striking. Nakamura needs to time counters to win.
Key Factors
Szalay on 5-fight win streakHome crowd for SzalayNakamura's karate styleSzalay's pressureSzalay's finishing ability
Keiichiro Nakamura Style
Sebastian Szalay Style
Keiichiro Nakamura Momentum
Momentum
SteadyLast 5 Fights
3W - 2L
Streak
1W
Hotness Index
60
Decline Index
15
Sebastian Szalay Momentum
Momentum
HotLast 5 Fights
5W - 0L
Streak
5W
Hotness Index
80
Decline Index
5
Keiichiro Nakamura Red Flags
Weight Cut
15%Cardio
15%Damage
20%Age Curve
15%Ring Rust
10%Post-KO
15%Title Fight
5 Rounds
Main Event
Sebastian Szalay Red Flags
Weight Cut
15%Cardio
20%Damage
10%Age Curve
5%Ring Rust
5%Post-KO
10%Title Fight
5 Rounds
Main Event