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Light Heavyweight3 Rounds
UFC 325: Volkanovski vs Lopes 2
February 1, 2026
Sydney, New South Wales, Australia
Win Probability
40%Tafa
Elekana60%
Predicted Winner
Billy Elekana
Confidence: 58%Method: Decision
Why Billy Elekana is Favored
Billy Elekana is on a 5-fight win streak and brings a strong wrestling base to this light heavyweight matchup. Junior Tafa, training out of City Kickboxing, has knockout power but is coming off a loss and has shown vulnerability on the ground. Elekana should be able to mix in takedowns and control the fight. Tafa's power makes him dangerous but his 3-fight skid shows he's there to be hit.
Style Matchup Breakdown
Elekana's wrestling (80% TD threat) should be able to take Tafa down. Tafa's kickboxing is dangerous but his grappling defense is suspect. Elekana's grind style should neutralize Tafa's striking.
Key Factors
Elekana on 5-fight win streakTafa coming off lossElekana's wrestling advantageTafa's power is always a threatTafa's City Kickboxing pedigreeBoth fighters looking for statement win
Junior Tafa Style
Billy Elekana Style
Junior Tafa Momentum
Momentum
SteadyLast 5 Fights
3W - 2L
Streak
1L
Hotness Index
60
Decline Index
15
Billy Elekana Momentum
Momentum
HotLast 5 Fights
5W - 0L
Streak
5W
Hotness Index
80
Decline Index
5
Junior Tafa Red Flags
Weight Cut
10%Cardio
30%Damage
25%Age Curve
5%Ring Rust
10%Post-KO
25%Title Fight
5 Rounds
Main Event
Billy Elekana Red Flags
Weight Cut
15%Cardio
20%Damage
15%Age Curve
15%Ring Rust
5%Post-KO
10%Title Fight
5 Rounds
Main Event