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Lightweight3 Rounds
UFC 325: Volkanovski vs Lopes 2
February 1, 2026
Sydney, New South Wales, Australia
Win Probability
60%Fiziev
Ruffy40%
Predicted Winner
Rafael Fiziev
Confidence: 62%Method: KO/TKO
Why Rafael Fiziev is Favored
A striking showcase between two dangerous finishers. Rafael Fiziev, the Muay Thai specialist, brings elite technique and devastating leg kicks. Mauricio 'One Shot' Ruffy earned his nickname with 11 KO wins in 12 victories but is coming off his first UFC loss to BSD via submission. Fiziev's experience and defensive striking (90% takedown defense) should give him the edge, but Ruffy's power makes him dangerous at any moment. This could end early for either fighter.
Style Matchup Breakdown
Fiziev's Muay Thai vs Ruffy's boxing. Both have knockout power but Fiziev more technical. Ruffy's reach advantage (75" vs 71.5"). Fiziev's superior takedown defense (90% vs 84%). Both lack grappling offense making this likely to stay standing.
Key Factors
Fiziev's elite Muay Thai techniqueRuffy's knockout power (92% finish rate)Fiziev's experience edgeRuffy coming off first UFC lossBoth fighters likely to stay standingRuffy's reach advantage could be factor
Rafael Fiziev Style
Mauricio Ruffy Style
Rafael Fiziev Momentum
Momentum
SteadyLast 5 Fights
3W - 2L
Streak
1W
Hotness Index
70
Decline Index
20
Mauricio Ruffy Momentum
Momentum
HotLast 5 Fights
4W - 1L
Streak
1L
Hotness Index
80
Decline Index
15
Rafael Fiziev Red Flags
Weight Cut
15%Cardio
25%Damage
30%Age Curve
20%Ring Rust
10%Post-KO
25%Title Fight
5 Rounds
Main Event
Mauricio Ruffy Red Flags
Weight Cut
10%Cardio
30%Damage
15%Age Curve
5%Ring Rust
5%Post-KO
15%Title Fight
5 Rounds
Main Event